This Winter of Our Discontent

winter snow scene
Winter scene via noaa.gov

Weather is probably not your biggest concern this weekend with the election grabbing American headlines and the pandemic still the top concern around the world. But last month NOAA issued its annual winter outlook for the upcoming season and I have looked at that each year on this blog.

NOAA’s winter forecast for the U.S. favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North.

For Paradelle, they predict generally warmer than average temperatures, and near average precipitation amounts. Their forecast this year was largely based on the continued presence of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

La Nina is a water temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean and you might think that it wouldn’t have much of an effect on the east coast. Strong trade winds move warmer water away from the Americas and so colder water takes its place and that is less favorable for the production of storms. We have all seen hurricane and tropical storms gain strength over warm water.
While a lack of storms means dry and warmer conditions in the south, it allows for chillier air and more storms to drop down from Canada into the Northern U.S.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that I will see less snow in my neighborhood. last year was light on snow, but you can get a lot of snow and still have a winter season warmer than average.
2020 has been a dry year so far in Paradelle. In my Tri-state area, we are about 5 inches below normal precipitation and New England is in a serious drought.

 

 

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Ken

A lifelong educator on and off the Internet. Random by design and predictably irrational. It's turtles all the way down. Dolce far niente.

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